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I am an elder millennial writer (37), but I am just starting out in my career, currently in my first year of an MFA program. I think economic conditions have made it difficult for many writers of my generation to not only break into the publishing industry, but continue publishing, the way previous generations did. It's harder, much harder, to work just enough to pay the bills while giving you enough time to not only improve your craft and then write your first novel, but also figure out how to get it published and then market it. I tried that for my first 35 years before giving up and applying to MFA programs. Many writers my age sunk their formative years into building a career on the internet, either through blogs or personal essays for outlets like Buzzfeed, and that has worked out for some, but it was never a stable career and takes creative energy away from writing fiction. As does the route of building a platform on social media. Going the MFA route in your twenties does seem to result in a lot of debut novels, but as you noted, does not necessarily support the author in publishing the next successive novels that might grow their reputation. Successful debut novelists still have to hustle, and hustling takes time away from writing, and the hustle can become the primary creative outlet for many. I remember reading an essay from Emily Gould ages ago, where she talked about how she had to work odd jobs after her debut novel in her early twenties failed to sell well. She is still writing, but has become known more for her personal essays, in outlets like The Cut, than for fiction.

We just don't have the economic conditions to support many "literary giants" of any generation. And beyond the material conditions, the publishing industry spent like 15 years telling writers that they wouldn't be successful if they didn't become social media superstars. I am hopeful that this bit of conventional wisdom is dying out, because I suspect that Sally Rooney's lack of engagement with the internet has more to do with her prolific output than is often assumed.

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We'd need to look at the 5 Under 30 list going back to the 70s to draw meaningful comparisons, but unfortunately that award was only established in 2006. For what it's worth, there are plenty of National Book Award winners from past decades whose names are unknown today, suggesting that those writers' careers were far from guaranteed as well. I also question whether this post overestimates the expected output of a prolific literary writer; is 3.5 years for a respectable book a long time? (Compared to what/who?)

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Not on SS, duh, so funny.

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I’m hopeful that the writing/publishing sector of our economy does not go the way of so many other sectors of our economy, where a few titans dominate and the rest of us are fighting for the scraps that drop onto the floor. I personally am encouraged that Substack is a sufficient platform to allow anyone who has the wherewithal to produce helpful and enlightening content to thrive and perhaps make a decent living writing full-time (or at least, supplement the income of a regular job.)

It really bothers me that the Millennials often get a bad rap for a variety of reasons. The oldest of us are mid-40’s, the youngest are pushing 30. We’ve lived long enough and have had the opportunity to experience enough life to have our thoughts and musings read, appreciated, and valued. I hope, that as time passes, the community will recognize this and give us what I feel is well deserved attention and value for our work.

Well-written and well-mused. Well-done!

Read and write on!

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Huh. Interesting. Well-written article. My perception is very different. Publishing feels very young to me. I think of young women authors who've hit it big over the past 7-8 years such as Emma Cline, Stephanie Danler, Ottessa Moshfegh, Sally Rooney, etc. All big million-dollar-plus advances fresh out of college and in their twenties. Seems to me like we're seeing more women in general and more non-white people/women in particular. I'm not saying white men aren't making the grade. I'm just saying: This is what publishing seems to doing right now. But I admit this might be more perception/anecdote than reality. Your graph seems to shift the narrative in your direction versus mine.

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